The safe haven is coming back! Trump's tariffs point to Turkey. Gold bulls are poised to re-emerge?
2019-10-15


24K99 News Tuesday (October 15th) Asian market in early trading, international spot gold at the level of 1494.70 US dollars / ounce level. The price of gold in the previous trading day has continued to rebound from the recent low of 1473.83 US dollars / ounce, the highest hit 1497.10 US dollars / ounce, and then slightly retracement from this point, is currently showing a narrow range of trading, it seems to have a rebound again Signs.
 
In the morning of the trading day, the Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T+D rose 0.49% to 341.11 yuan / gram. The trading day is 340.96 yuan / gram at the opening.
 
 
 
(Gold T+D daily chart source: 24K99)
 
Gold T+D closed down 4.41 yuan (October 14), down 1.28%, to close at 339.59 yuan / gram, the highest price of 341.50 yuan / gram, the lowest price of 337.30 yuan / gram.
 
At the same time, the international spot gold on the previous trading day opened at 1488.50 US dollars / ounce, the lowest test was 1482.50 US dollars / ounce, the highest rose to 1497.00 US dollars / ounce, to close at 1493.00 US dollars / ounce, up 4.24 US dollars, or 0.28%.
 
At the dawn of the latest round of Sino-US trade talks, new news emerged on Monday's international trade situation. On the afternoon of October 14, local time, U.S. Treasury Secretary Nuchin and Vice President Burns announced outside the White House that U.S. President Trump signed an executive order to formally impose sanctions on Turkey.
 
Burns said the president ordered an increase in steel tariffs on Turkey (up to 50%) and immediately lifted negotiations on a $100 billion trade agreement with Turkish officials. At the same time, the United States formally imposed sanctions on some officials and institutions of the Turkish government involved in the invasion of northern Syria. Nuchin pointed out that the United States has now sanctioned three Turkish ministers as well as the Turkish Ministry of Defence and Energy.
 
Burns claimed that "the sanctions against Turkey today are only the beginning. If Turkey does not agree to the ceasefire, the sanctions will continue."
 
Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM, said, "We should not be too excited about what is going on, especially in the case of trade disputes, because nothing has changed significantly."
 
In addition, in the case of Brexit, investors are now looking forward to the EU and UK summits in Brussels on Thursday and Friday. However, after diplomats said that the EU hopes that British Prime Minister Johnson will make more concessions and said that it is unlikely to reach a comprehensive agreement this week, it seems that it is still difficult to reach a comprehensive agreement this week to allow the UK to successfully leave the EU.
 
If the Brexit renewed negative news and the UK did not agree to the risk of Brexit, gold may be boosted by a new round of buying.
 
From a technical point of view, on the daily chart, the price of gold is slightly under pressure, the MACD green kinetic energy column remains unchanged, and the KDJ stochastic indicator continues to fall, indicating that the daily volatility of the gold daily chart continues, and may continue to expand the decline, but the momentum is more moderate.
 
On the 4 hours chart, the gold price started to rebound moderately, the MACD red kinetic energy column expanded slightly, and the KDJ stochastic index rose moderately, indicating that the gold short-term may rebound.
 
Fundamental positive factors:
 
1. On the afternoon of October 14th, local time, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Vice President Burns announced outside the White House that US President Trump signed an executive order to formally impose sanctions on Turkey.
 
2. On Monday (October 14), the source told CNBC that China hopes to conduct a new round of negotiations before the first phase of the agreement, and the market optimism has cooled down.
 
3. The prospect of whether the UK and the EU can reach an agreement to allow the UK to successfully leave the EU is still unclear. A former diplomat said that the EU hopes that British Prime Minister Johnson will make more concessions, saying that it is unlikely to reach a comprehensive agreement this week.
 
4. The US core CPI released in September last month increased by 0.1% from the previous month, and is expected to increase by 0.2%. The CPI is flat and is expected to increase by 0.1%. Some agencies commented that the US CPI monthly rate was flat in September, potential inflation fell, and the trade situation led to economic risks, supporting the Fed's third interest rate cut in October.
 
Fundamental negative factors:
 
1. According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump said on October 11 that he believes that the United States and China have "closed" to the end of the trade war, and the agreement reached between the two sides will benefit both the United States and China and the world. Ramp also mentioned that he is very happy to see that the US-China Economic and Trade Consultation has achieved a substantial first-phase result, which is a major positive for the United States and China and the world. It is hoped that the teams of both sides will work hard to determine the text of the first phase agreement as soon as possible and continue to promote follow-up consultations.
 
2. On Friday (October 11th), Liu He, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, Vice Premier of the State Council, and Chinese leader of the China-US Comprehensive Economic Dialogue, said that the two sides had frank and efficient economic and trade issues of common concern during this round of consultations. Constructive discussions, making substantial progress in the fields of agriculture, intellectual property protection, exchange rates, financial services, expanding trade cooperation, technology transfer, dispute settlement, and discussing follow-up consultation arrangements.
 
3. On Friday, it was reported that the EU agreed that its chief negotiator responsible for Brexit restarted negotiations with London. Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator for Brexit, said he had had a “constructive” talk with Barackley, the UK’s Brexit minister, and the EU-27 agreed to try to reach it by the October 31 deadline. Brexit agreement.
 
4. The US September import price index published on Friday was -1.6%, which was higher than the previous value of -2% and the expected -2.1%, which was better than expected. The initial value of the US University of Michigan consumer confidence index in October was 96. Higher than the previous value of 93.2 and the expected 92, which is good for the US dollar.
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